Research
Working Papers
Irrigation Adoption in a Changing Landscape: A Combined Economic and Hydrologic Approach
with Jamshid Jalali, Molly Sears, Sean A. Woznicki, Tao Liu, Oskar Marko, and Mirjana Radulović
Under First Review: Water Resources Research – Agrohydrological Processes Under Global Change
Abstract:
Warmer temperatures and erratic rainfall threaten global water availability. While irrigation adoption is a key risk-mitigation strategy, limited research has examined farmers’ likelihood of adopting irrigation under climate change, or the effects of large-scale adoption on future water availability. We take an integrated econometric–hydrologic modeling approach to study how short- and long-term climate fluctuations influence adoption decisions and their implications for water resources. First, we simulate future adoption under climate change using discrete choice methods. Next, we integrate results of when and where adoption is likely to occur into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) to assess impacts on water availability. By 2060, irrigation adoption is projected to reach 13% under a “dry” scenario and 5% under a “wet” scenario, up from 1.4% in the baseline. This expansion mitigates rainfall risk but deepens water balance deficits, especially in dry years.
Ongoing Research
Weathering the Change: Modeling Crop Choices in Response to Climate Variability
Abstract:
Agricultural land allocation remains sensitive to climate change. As temperatures rise and precipitation patterns become more variable, farmers switch to crops better suited to the changing climate. While this substitution has tremendous market and welfare implications, quantifying these impacts remains understudied, largely due to limited data on adaptive decisions and challenges in measuring profitability. Using field-level cropping data, we examine how climate change shapes crop choices. First, we estimate a yield–weather model to identify crop-specific thresholds for extreme events and project climate impacts on yields. We then integrate these results into a discrete crop choice model to assess how shifts in yields and profitability influence farmer decisions. We run three simulations: (i) climate change alone, (ii) with yield effects, and (iii) with yield and market effects, where prices adjust to yield shifts. We find that under changing climatic and market conditions; farmers switch away from profitable crops such as maize and soybean to less profitable but more resilient wheat and sunflower. This adaptive substitution generates welfare losses of up to 35%, highlighting the trade-offs between resilience and profitability under climate change.
Can “Mafia” be Good? Evidence from Karachi’s Urban Water Market
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate how households and non-state actors adapt to chronic water scarcity and infrastructural failures in developing countries. In many urban areas, unreliable and inadequate public water supply have given rise to the “water mafia” — non-state actors that extract and sell water, often at high prices, to households disconnected from the piped network. The overall social welfare impact of these actors remains uncertain due to limited microdata on household-level adaptation to piped water scarcity. Leveraging a novel household survey that I designed and implemented in Karachi, Pakistan, I estimate a discrete–continuous model of household water demand and quantify the welfare changes from a counterfactual eliminating the water mafia. Preliminary findings reveal substantial disparities in piped water access, forcing poorer households to rely on illegal water vendors, creating opportunities for the mafia to engage in exploitative behavior.
Publications
Estimating the Economic Impacts of the First Wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan Using a SAM Multiplier Model
with Muhammad Saad Moeen, Zeeshan Haider, Sania Haider Shikoh, Amna Ejaz, Stephen Davies, and Abdul Wajid Rana
Solarization of Electric Tube-wells for Agriculture in Balochistan: Economic and Environmental Viability
with Abdul Wajid Rana, Stephen Davies, Muhammad Saad Moeen, and Sania Haider Shikoh
What Explains Divergent Investment Performances in Asia-Pacific?
with Daniel Jeongdae Lee
Media Spotlight
Who pays for water? MSU researchers examine Karachi’s water mafia, local experts reflect on Michigan’s water woes
MSU Water Alliance Feature, June 3, 2025